March 3, 2017

BB80: Is it feasible to have a FW representative on CSM 12?

BB80 asks if CSM12 will be dominated by null-sec with no voice for hi-sec, low-sec, and WH players.  I think there’s a chance for low-sec this time around if FW can show that it pulls together and votes in a candidate such as Scylus Black. But how good is that chance?

CCP Seagull encourages you to get involved in CSM12 and put your name forward to be a Space-Politician. On his blog Neville Smit noted that CSM11 had done a good job with minimum of drama. However he said he’d not be covering CSM12 like he has in previous years as he sees no point. The power-blocs will vote on who they want and unless Steve Ronuken manages to get on CSM12 it is almost certainly going to have every seat taken by the big null-sec blocs.
Is Neville right? Is the CSM moving more and more into just a voice for 0.0? Is this a bad thing? Are the hi-sec, low-sec and WH players going to lose out badly or is it really not an issue as it's the same game? Could a totally null-sec dominated CSM 12 give a balanced voice for everyone?
I’d like to agree with Kirith that it is possible for a FW candidate to make it onto the CSM.  Let’s take a quick look at the numbers.  According to some analysis from Fuzzy Steve the threshold for getting on the CSM is at #voters divided by seats plus one, plus one.  If we have about the same number of voters as CSM 10 (i.e. before the big disappointment of that CSM), that threshold is about 3364. If we stay at the historically low number of voters that voted in CSM 11 then that threshold is about 2045. So how many Faction Warfare players are there that are engaged enough to vote?

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that if you’re in FW but you aren’t active enough to be considered an active PVPer by zkillboard, then you’re probably someone’s farming alt or not engaged enough to vote.

Total 3,936

Ouch on those numbers for the Minmatar.

So that’s not terribly promising.  We have enough people in Faction Warfare that if all of the active PVPers voted their #1 slot for the same FW candidate (such as Scylus Black) then they’d get on the CSM, assuming turnout numbers like CSM X.  On top of that, we have to discount those numbers by how many people in Faction Warfare are Alphas, and thus ineligible to vote.  If turnout was down to CSM 11 numbers, then we probably should discount our raw player counts for the same reason. We could hope that FW players have more than one active account (and thus more votes) but that may means they have more than one active PVPer in our counts as well. Those are some pretty big IFs.

That tells me that Scylus Black not only needs to make the rounds with all of the Factional Warfare corps, but also needs to broaden his pitch to include other lowsec residents (aka pirates).  The good news is that we in FW are already pretty well acquainted with them via the vigorous pew pew that happens every night.

But he’s got his work cut out for him.

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